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随着中国航空运输周转量不断增长,航油消耗量也在持续增长。然而,航油价格和环境成本(碳交易或碳税)的增加使航空公司不得不大力节油。为了更加精确地评估航空公司的航油消耗,基于中国航空运输业1981—2010年的统计数据,运用最小二乘法对现有的油耗评价指标———单位吨公里油耗进行研究,并在此基础上引入了起飞爬升下降油耗这个指标,同时运用岭回归法解决了回归过程中存在的多重共线性问题,最终得到标准化的岭回归方程。结果表明,飞机起飞爬升下降时耗油比巡航时要高,增加指标更符合中国航空运输业的实际情况。
With the continuous growth of China’s air transport turnover, jet fuel consumption is also continuing to grow. However, the increase in jet fuel prices and environmental costs (carbon trading or carbon taxes) has forced airlines to save fuel. In order to evaluate airlines’ aviation fuel consumption more accurately, based on the statistical data of China’s air transport industry from 1981 to 2010, the least square method is used to study the existing fuel consumption evaluation index --- fuel consumption per tonne kilometers The index of take-off and climb-down fuel consumption is introduced. At the same time, Ridge regression method is used to solve the problem of multicollinearity in the process of regression. Finally, a standardized Ridge regression equation is obtained. The result shows that the fuel consumption is higher when the aircraft takes off and climbs and descends than when it cruises, and it is more in line with the actual situation of China’s air transport industry.