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根据《MB》最近一篇关于氧化铝的专论,2001年世界消费氧化铝为4790万吨,而氧化铝产量则达到4970万吨,有180万吨的盈余。预计2002年会稍有好转,盈余会达70万吨,世界氧化铝产量达到5140万吨;到2003年盈余会达到30万吨,虽然减少了许多,但世界氧化铝产量会达到5370万吨,需求的速度会增加,可望达到5400万吨;到2005年世界氧化铝市场的供求形势会出现大转折,氧化铝缺口会达到190万吨,这必将对氧化铝的现货和期货价格产生深刻影响。 也有专家认为,到2003年末、2004年初,氧化铝会出现短缺,
According to a recent monograph on alumina by the “MB”, the world’s consumption of alumina was 47.9 million tons in 2001, while that of alumina reached 49.7 million tons with 1.8 million tons of surplus. It is expected that there will be a slight improvement in 2002 with a surplus of 700,000 tons and an output of 51.4 million tons of alumina in the world. By 2003, the surplus will reach 300,000 tons, which will reduce the output of alumina in the world to 53.7 million tons, Demand will increase, is expected to reach 54 million tons; by 2005 the world alumina supply and demand situation will be a big turning point, the alumina gap will reach 1.9 million tons, which will have a profound impact on the spot and futures prices of alumina influences. Some experts believe that by the end of 2003 and early 2004, there will be a shortage of alumina,