厄尔尼诺是发生在热带中东太平洋海温异常增暖的气候现象,它是月到年际尺度全球气候变化中最重要和最强的信号.厄尔尼诺虽然发生在热带太平洋地区,但其影响却波及全球,对全球气候的短期变化有重要影响,造成世界上许多地区发生严重的旱涝和高低温灾害.2014年初,热带太平洋明显出现了厄尔尼诺事件爆发的一些前期物理信号,这些大气和海洋中呈现的前兆信号与爆发超级厄尔尼诺事件的1997年同期非常相似.本文利用卫星观测的高度计资料,精确地估计了表征次表层暖水东传过程的赤道开尔文波的变化.结果表明,相比自有1993年海表高度计卫星观测以来的6次厄尔尼诺事件,2014年3月赤道太平洋的开尔文波的向东传播速度是同期最快的,甚至明显地超过了1997年的超级厄尔尼诺事件.这些特征集中表明,2014年初的次表层暖水快速东传的现象,使得热带中东太平洋海表温度在未来几个月明显增暖,促使2014年爆发一次厄尔尼诺事件. El Niño is the climatic phenomenon that occurs in the anomalous warming of SST in the tropical Central and Eastern Pacific and is the most important and strongest signal of global climate change from month to interannual scale. Although El Nio occurs in the tropical Pacific, its impact has spread to the whole world. Have had a major impact on the short-term changes in the global climate and have caused severe droughts and floods as well as high and low temperature disasters in many parts of the world In early 2014, some of the pre-physical signals of the El Nio events were clearly visible in the tropical Pacific, presenting precursors of these atmospheres and oceans The signal is very similar to the same period of 1997 when the El Niño event broke out.We used the altimeter data of satellite observations to accurately estimate the change of the equatorial Kelvin wave characterizing the eastward warm water of sub-surface warm water.The results show that, The six El Niño events since the appearance of the altimeters on the surface of the altimeter show the fastest eastward propagation of Kelvin waves over the equatorial Pacific in March 2014, which is even faster than the super-El Niño event of 1997. These features have shown that in early 2014 The sub-surface warm water rapidly eastward to the phenomenon that makes the tropical Middle East Pacific Sea surface temperatures have significantly increased in the coming months, prompting an El Nino outbreak in 2014.