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利用递归数字滤波法分割黑河上游主要水文站点的基流量,用移动平均、曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)突变检验,小波分析方法分析研究区多年基流变化特点,并对基流影响因子进行分析。结果显示:黑河上游祁连、扎马什克、莺落峡三站多年平均基流指数均大于0.4;祁连与莺落峡多年基流量呈上升趋势,二者都在1979年发生增加到显著增加的突变。扎马什克基流波动较大,总体呈下降趋势;三站基流分别存在11年、6年、15年的明显变化周期。基流量变化主要受降水的影响。人类活动对基流的影响主要表现在造成黑河上游森林面积减少,使其补给调节基流的能力下降,从而使基流量减少且更易受气候变化的影响。黑河上游基流变化特征符合西北地区对全球气候变化的响应的一致性,同时也有其受到祁连山冰雪融水补给、山区特殊地形等影响,从而体现对全球气候变化响应的差异性。
The base flow of the main hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Heihe River was separated by recursive digital filtering method. The characteristics of base flow changes over many years in the study area were analyzed by moving average, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis. analysis. The results showed that the average base flow index of all three stations in Qilian, Zamashike and Yingluoxia Gorge was above 0.4 in the upper reaches of the Heihe River, and the annual base flow in Qilian and Yingluoxia Gorge increased, both of which increased significantly in 1979 Increased mutation. Zamashike base flow fluctuations, the overall downward trend; three base stations respectively 11, 6, 15 years of significant change cycle. Base flow changes are mainly affected by precipitation. The impact of human activities on the base flow is mainly reflected in the decrease of the forest area in the upper reaches of the Heihe River and the reduction of its ability to replenish the base flow so that the base flow is reduced and more vulnerable to the impact of climate change. The characteristics of the base flow changes in the upper reaches of the Heihe River are consistent with the response to the global climate change in the northwestern region, and are also affected by the ice and snow melt recharge in the Qilian Mountains and the special terrain in the mountainous areas, thus reflecting the differences in response to global climate change.