论文部分内容阅读
本文回顾了关于石油价格和经济增长关系的有关理论,分别用凯恩斯的收入决定理论和“资源诅咒”理论分析了石油价格波动对俄罗斯经济的短期和长期影响,得出了石油价格上涨在短期中有利于俄罗斯经济增长,但会阻碍俄罗斯经济长远发展的结论。最后运用格兰杰因果关系检验分析了石油价格波动与俄罗斯GDP变动之间的关系,即石油价格波动是俄罗斯GDP变动的格兰杰原因,但俄罗斯GDP变动不是石油价格波动的格兰杰原因。
This paper reviews the relevant theories on the relationship between oil price and economic growth, analyzes the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuations on the Russian economy by using Keynes’s income determination theory and Resource Curse theory respectively, In the short term, Russia’s economic growth will benefit, but it will hinder the conclusion that Russia’s economy will grow in the long run. Finally, Granger causality test was used to analyze the relationship between fluctuations in oil prices and the changes in Russia’s GDP. That is, the fluctuation of oil prices is the Granger reason for the changes in Russia’s GDP. However, the changes in Russia’s GDP are not the Granger causes of fluctuations in oil prices.