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早在一年前,就有读者希望我们谈谈“将来的世界上哪个国家能够与美国抗衡”(见2001年第7期“读编往来”)。正当我们准备约请专家谈谈这个问题的时候,有人建议我们,不妨对世界主要国家(及国家集团)的实力对比进行一次讨论。这与上述读者的希望不谋而合。于是,我们约请专家写成了这组文章。但就在此时,9.11事件爆发了,这一事件对美国的经济实力和世界经济发展将产生怎样影响,人们一时议论纷纷。鉴于这种新的变数带来的不确定感,我们这个话题暂时搁置下来了。9.11事件过去半年了,它的影响人们是不是已经看得更清楚了?现在又该怎样来看大国(集团)的实力?我们请这组文章的作者们根据新的情况重新审视。他们在认真研究后认为:这些文章的基本观点依然成立。也就是说,9.11事件没有对大国实力对比产生根本的影响。于是,我们在本期推出这组文章,让这个候时一年的选题画上一个句号。由于资料来源不同,各位专家研究的侧重点也不同,在具体数字上可能会有些出入,但大的框架和方向却是基本一致的。———编者手记
As early as a year ago, some readers wanted us to talk about “which country in the world in the future can compete with the United States” (see “Reading Compilation and Interchanging”, No. 7, 2001). As we prepare to invite experts to talk about this issue, some suggest that we may wish to conduct a discussion on the strength of major countries (and groups of countries) in the world. This coincided with the reader’s hope. So, we asked experts to write this group of articles. However, at this very moment, the 9.11 incident broke out. What impact will this incident have on the U.S. economic strength and the world economic development? In the light of the uncertainty brought about by this new variable, we have temporarily put aside this topic. What happened to the Sept.11 attacks in the past six months? Has its influence been seen more clearly? How can we now see the power of the big powers? We urge the authors of this group to re-examine the new situation. After careful study, they think: The basic idea of these articles still holds. In other words, the September 11 incident did not have a fundamental impact on the balance of power between big powers. So, we are launching this group of articles in this issue so that the one-year-old theme will be drawn to a full stop. Due to different sources of information, the focus of research by experts is also different. There may be discrepancies in specific figures, but the major frameworks and directions are basically the same. --- Editor’s Note