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结合武汉市水资源的实际情况,采用系统动力学方法建立动态模型,并结合层次分析法确定各动态指标的权重,利用加权指数法和平衡指数模型进行定量计算,获得了武汉市水资源承载力综合指数和平衡指数。结果表明,与延续现状发展的方案对比,在开源节流治污的同时优化调整产业结构的方案下,武汉市水资源承载力综合指数增长了15.5%、平衡指数增长了5.2%,反映了水资源对社会经济发展的影响,表明采用开源节流治污的同时优化调整产业结构的方案,可以最大程度地提高武汉市水资源承载力。
Combined with the actual situation of water resources in Wuhan, the dynamic model was established by using system dynamics method, and the weight of each dynamic index was determined by AHP. The weighted index method and equilibrium index model were used to quantitatively calculate the water resources carrying capacity Composite Index and Balance Index. The results show that, compared with the scheme of continuing development, the comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity in Wuhan increased by 15.5% and the equilibrium index increased by 5.2% under the plan of optimizing and adjusting industrial structure while cutting costs and reducing pollution. It reflects that water resources The impact of social and economic development shows that the plan of optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure while adopting the principle of cutting costs and cutting costs can maximize the carrying capacity of water resources in Wuhan.