建国以来,我国棉花的生产水平不断提高,棉花总产量呈上升趋势,期间,由于受政策等多方面因素的影响,总产经历了三起三落的变化。下面就我国四十年来棉花总产的实际情况,去掉极端变化,模拟出一个棉花总产预测方程。以预测1990年和2000年我国棉花总产。1、预测方程的建立根据四十年来的棉花总产变化不难看出(见表1),其逐期增长量近似于中期 Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the production level of cotton in our country has been continuously improved and the total output of cotton has been on an upward trend. During the period, due to many factors such as policies, the general output has gone through three ups and downs. Below the actual situation of China’s cotton production over the past 40 years, remove the extreme changes to simulate a cotton production forecasting equation. To forecast China’s total cotton output in 1990 and 2000. 1, the establishment of prediction equation According to forty years of total cotton production changes is not difficult to see (see Table 1), the amount of incremental growth similar to the medium-term