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目的探讨高温热浪对沿海城市每日居民死亡情况的影响,为预防与控制热浪对城市居民健康的不良影响提供科学依据。方法采用半参数广义相加模型对我国某沿海城市中心城区2005—2007年日平均温度与每日居民死亡数之间关系进行研究,同时采用分布滞后模型探索夏季日平均温度对每日居民死亡数的滞后效应。结果通过平滑2005—2007年某沿海城市中心区日全死因死亡数与日平均温度的关系,得出它们之间的关系近似呈“V”型。夏季日平均温度每升高1℃,相对危险度增加0.036(P<0.01)。在建立的半参数广义相加模型中,日平均温度与日死亡数线性关系特别显著(P<0.001),通过逐步回归对温度迟滞项lag1、lag2、lag3进行筛选,得出lag3代入模型最有意义,线性关系特别显著(P<0.001)。通过分布滞后模型,获得lag0、lag1对全死因死亡率的影响最明显(P<0.0001)。结论高温热浪对城镇居民每日居民死亡人数产生不利的影响,为了应对热浪活动在全球范围内日趋频繁的威胁,应该根据沿海城市的地区特点,采取相应的有效预防措施,以减少热浪导致的健康危害作用,确保沿海城市居民的健康。
Objective To investigate the effects of heat waves on the daily deaths of urban residents in coastal cities and to provide a scientific basis for preventing and controlling the adverse effects of heat waves on the health of urban residents. Methods The semi-parametric generalized model was used to study the relationship between the average daily temperature and the daily death toll of residents in a coastal city downtown of China from 2005 to 2007. At the same time, the distribution lag model was used to explore the effect of the summer daily average temperature on the daily death toll Lag effect. Results By smoothing the relationship between the number of all-cause deaths and the daily average temperature in a coastal city center from 2005 to 2007, the relationship between them was approximately “V”. For each 1 ℃ increase in summer mean temperature, the relative risk increased by 0.036 (P <0.01). In the semi-parametric generalized additive model established, the linear relationship between daily average temperature and daily death number was significant (P <0.001), and lag3, lag3 and lag3 were screened by stepwise regression. Significance, linear relationship was particularly significant (P <0.001). By distributing the lag model, lag0 and lag1 had the most significant effect on all-cause mortality (P <0.0001). Conclusions High temperature and heat waves have a negative impact on the daily death toll of urban residents. To cope with the increasingly global threat of heat wave activities, corresponding effective prevention measures should be taken according to the regional characteristics of coastal cities in order to reduce the health caused by heat waves Harmful to ensure the health of residents in coastal cities.