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在农业气候分析中,常常迂到农业气候指标保证率的计算问题。以往习惯采用经验频率方法进行计算,其优点是方法简单。但随着气象资料的积累增多(即样本容量增大)时,气候要素的频数分配不是服从正态分布就是符合偏态分布。因此,采用分布理论计算农业气候指标的保证率,应当更可靠、更合理,而且计算方法也并不复杂。本文将介绍比较实用的理论计算方法,即运用正态分布和伽玛分布来计算农业气候指标的保证率。
In agro-climatic analysis, the calculation of the guarantee rate of agro-climatic indicators is often followed. In the past, it is customary to use the empirical frequency method for calculation, which has the advantage of a simple method. However, as the accumulation of meteorological data increases (ie, the sample size increases), the frequency distribution of climatic elements does not follow the normal distribution and is in line with the skewed distribution. Therefore, the distribution theory should be used to calculate the guarantee rate of agro-climatic indicators, which should be more reliable and reasonable, and the calculation method is not complicated. This article will introduce a more practical theoretical calculation method, that is, the use of normal distribution and gamma distribution to calculate the agricultural climate index guarantee rate.