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在小黑杨1、2、3年生苗的圃地内设置固定样地,用孢子捕捉法、期矩法、回归预测法、灰色理论预测法和数量化模型Ⅰ预测法,连续4年对病害的发生期,发生量进行预测。结果表明:病害流行与气温,相对湿度和降雨关系密切,当平均气温18～22℃、平均相对湿度65%～75%、降雨量为80 mm 以上时发病严重;利用10 d 前的病情指数和对应的气象因子,建立了预测数学模型,对病害进行短期预测,经实际检验,可靠性达72%～99%。
A fixed plot was set up in the nursery of 1, 2, and 3 years of Populus simonii. Using spore catching method, moment method, regression prediction method, gray theory prediction method and quantitative model Ⅰ prediction method, Occurrence, the occurrence of the amount of prediction. The results showed that the prevalence of disease was closely related to temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. When the average temperature was between 18 ℃ and 22 ℃, the average relative humidity was between 65% and 75% and the rainfall was above 80 mm, Corresponding meteorological factors, the establishment of a mathematical model of prediction, short-term disease prediction, the actual test, the reliability of 72% to 99%.