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长江中下游地区是我国水稻主产区,该区域的旱灾将威胁到我国粮食安全。采用小波神经网络和逻辑增长模型建立了一个评估旱灾影响的干预分析模型,评估了2011年发生在该地区50年一遇的旱灾对我国主产区水稻市场的干预模式和影响强度。研究表明旱灾对我国主产区水稻市场的干预近似服从逻辑分布。旱灾发生时,市场价格并不会立刻大幅上涨,在旱灾持续约4个月后,市场价格才被快速拉升,之后逐渐过渡到平缓波动,最后市场价格刚性使得水稻价格维持在一个新的高位上波动。
The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is the main paddy producing area in China. The drought in this area will threaten China’s food security. Using wavelet neural network and logic growth model, an intervention analysis model to evaluate the impact of drought was established to evaluate the intervention mode and intensity of the 50-year drought in 2011 in the main rice producing areas in China. Research shows that drought intervention in the rice market in China’s main producing areas is approximately logically distributed. The market price did not rise sharply immediately after the drought. After the droughts lasted for about 4 months, the market price was rapidly pulled up and then gradually shifted to a gradual fluctuation. Finally, the market price rigidity kept the price of rice at a new high On the fluctuations.