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根据塔里木河流域1961-2008年39个气象站观测气温和降水量数据,对流域近50 a气候变化进行了分析,并对参与IPCC AR4的17个气候模式在塔里木河流域气候模拟能力进行了评估.结果表明:近50 a气温和降水时间序列分别在1986和1996年发生突变.1996年后塔里木河流域四季均呈现变暖趋势,最为明显的是夏季气温变化.从突变前后的降水概率分布变化来看,除秋季无明显变化外,其他3个季节均有所变化,其中,夏季表现为平均降水量增加较为明显,而春季和冬季降水变化则主要表现在方差增加.气候模式在塔里木河流域模拟能力评估表明,所有模式对降水量的模拟均偏高,而对气温模拟均偏低.各模式可以再现塔里木河流域气温年内变化,但普遍对降水的年内分布模拟有所提前,月降水峰值出现在4月和5月.采用模式加权平均数据对2011-2050年的气温变化进行预估,结果表明塔里木河流域年平均气温在不同情景下均呈上升趋势,上升幅度在0.5~2.4℃之间.
Based on the observed temperature and precipitation data of 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin from 1961 to 2008, the climate change in the basin for the past 50 years was analyzed and the climate modeling capability of 17 climate models participating in IPCC AR4 in the Tarim River Basin was evaluated The results show that the temperature and precipitation time series have been changed in 1986 and 1996, respectively, in the past 50 years, and the trend of warming in the four seasons in Tarim River Basin after 1996. The most obvious is the summer temperature change. In addition, there was no significant change in autumn except the autumn, and the other three seasons changed, of which, the increase of average precipitation in summer was more obvious, while the change of spring and winter precipitation was mainly in the increase of variance.Climatic model in the Tarim River Basin The assessment of simulative ability shows that all the models simulate the precipitation and the temperature are low, and all the models can reproduce the annual temperature variation of the Tarim River Basin, but the distribution of the precipitation in the year is generally premature, and the monthly precipitation peak Appeared in April and May. Using the model-weighted average data to estimate the temperature change in 2011-2050, the results show that the Tarim River Basin The average annual temperature in different scenarios showed an upward trend, the increase in the range of 0.5 ~ 2.4 ℃.