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在新疆钻孔应变 18年的观测期间 ,发生了 6级以上强震 17组 (次 ) ,其中 7级以上地震 5次 ,8级以上地震 1次。钻孔应变资料在 6 4%强震前记录到了异常变化。其中属于天山和塔里木地块周边的 15例强震中 ,在 11例地震前钻孔应变资料出现了异常 ,占全部强震的 73%。利用钻孔应变资料正确预报的地震数仅 4例 ,占全部强震的 2 3% ,占天山及塔里木地块周边地震数的 2 6 %。在这些强震中距离台站 2 5 0 km范围以内发生的地震有 7例 ,正确预报的有 4例 ,占 5 7%。
During the 18-year observation of borehole strain in Xinjiang, 17 strong earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above occurred, of which, more than 7 earthquakes occurred 5 times and earthquakes above 8th magnitude occurred once. The borehole strain data recorded anomalous changes before the 6.4% strong earthquakes. Of the 15 strong earthquakes that belong to the periphery of Tianshan and Tarim blocks, anomalous borehole strain data occurred before the 11 earthquakes, accounting for 73% of all strong earthquakes. The number of earthquakes correctly predicted by borehole strain data is only 4, accounting for 23% of all strong earthquakes and accounting for 26% of the earthquakes around Tianshan and Tarim plots. In these strong earthquakes, there were 7 earthquakes within 250 km from the station and 4 correctly predicted earthquakes (57%).