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2013年中央一号文件指出:“确保国家粮食安全,保障重要农产品有效供给,始终是发展现代农业的首要任务。”本文的研究结果表明,我国粮食已由供求基本平衡转为供求趋紧,国际市场日益成为不可或缺的重要补充;油料自给率较低且生产难以大幅增加,依赖国际市场的格局难以逆转;棉花“大进大出”格局或将维持,对外依存度将进一步上升。未来保证我国主要农产品结构平衡的重点包括:主要谷物必须坚持基本自给,国际市场作为必要补充;油料产业重点在于保护农民种植收益和本土油脂产业健康发展,同时合理调整国内食用植物油消费结构;棉花产业关键在于稳定国内生产,同时充分利用国际市场。
In 2013, document No.1 of the Central Government pointed out: “Ensuring the national food security and ensuring the effective supply of important agricultural products has always been the primary task of developing modern agriculture.” The research results in this paper show that China’s food supply has been shifted from the basic balance of supply and demand to the tightening of supply and demand The international market is increasingly becoming an indispensable supplement; the low self-sufficiency rate of oilseeds and the difficulty of a substantial increase in production are difficult to reverse depending on the pattern of the international market; and the pattern of cotton production will be maintained or maintained, its dependence on foreign countries will further rise. In the future, the key points to ensure the balance of the structure of China’s major agricultural products include: major cereals must adhere to the basic self-sufficiency and the international market as a necessary supplement; the oil industry focuses on protecting farmers’ income from planting and the healthy development of the local oil and fat industries while rationally adjusting the consumption structure of domestic edible vegetable oil; The key is to stabilize domestic production while taking full advantage of the international market.