论文部分内容阅读
台风与梅雨遭遇的可能程度及其后果对太湖流域设计暴雨调整、洪水资源利用方案制定与防洪实时调度决策具有重要意义.基于现有研究成果对遭遇现象产生过程的描述,选择“台风影响太湖流域的时间”与“入梅时间”和“出梅时间”分别作为刻画台风与梅雨现象的指标,依据1954～2009年台风与梅雨同步数据资料,在确定上述3个变量分布函数的基础上,给出了台风与梅雨遭遇的概率表达式;针对表达式的复杂性特点和求解需要,综合对比阿基米德copula函数族中3个函数的适应性后,以Gumbel Copula作为连接函数构造了台风与梅雨遭遇的联合分布函数;进而采用数值积分与蒙特卡洛2种方法对表达式(台风与梅雨遭遇的概率)进行了求解,最后对计算结果的合理性进行了分析.
The extent and consequences of the typhoon and the Meiyu encounters are of great significance for the design of heavy rain in the Taihu Lake Basin, the formulation of flood resource utilization plans and the real-time flood control decision-making.According to the existing research results on the occurrence of the phenomenon, According to the synchronic data of typhoon and Meiyu from 1954 to 2009, after determining the distribution function of the above three variables, the time of the basin and the time of entering the plum and the time of exiting plum are respectively used as the indexes to describe the phenomena of typhoons and plumes. The probability expressions of typhoon and Meiyu are given. According to the complexity of the expression and the need of solving the problem, Gumbel Copula is used to connect the adaptability of the three functions in the family of Copula functions. Function is used to construct the joint distribution function of typhoon and meiyu encountered. Then two kinds of methods of numerical integration and Monte Carlo are used to solve the expression (the probability of typhoon and meiyu encountered). Finally, the rationality of the calculation results is analyzed.