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目的:通过引进NUSAP方法量化区域降雨频率分析不确定性来源中质量方面的不确定性,并结合数量方面的不确定性,分析这些不确定性对降雨频率分析的影响,为水资源风险决策和水利工程设计等提供更好的指导。创新点:总结区域降雨频率分析中的不确定性来源,并在区域频率分析中引进NUSAP方法用以量化其质量不确定性,针对区域频率分析提出Pedigree矩阵。方法:1.选取区域频率分析中三个主要不确定性来源,即降雨测量不确定性、水文分区不确定性和分布线型的不确定性;2.提出针对区域频率分析的评价依据Pedigree矩阵,量化区域频率分析中的质量不确定性;3.将质量和数量两类不确定性结合在不确定性诊断图中,综合评估区域频率分析中的质量不确定和数量不确定性。结论:NUSAP方法可以有效地量化区域降雨频率分析中的质量不确定性,并通过不确定性诊断图将质量不确定和数量不确定性很好地结合起来,为水资源风险决策和水利工程设计等提供了直观的方案。
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the regional rainfall frequency by introducing the NUSAP method to analyze the uncertainty of the quality in the source of uncertainty, and to analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the rainfall frequency analysis by combining with the quantitative uncertainty, Water conservancy engineering design to provide better guidance. Innovative point: summarize the sources of uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis, introduce NUSAP method in regional frequency analysis to quantify the quality uncertainty, and propose Pedigree matrix for regional frequency analysis. Methods: 1.Select the three main sources of uncertainty in regional frequency analysis, namely the uncertainty of rainfall measurement, the uncertainty of hydrological subarea and the linearity of distributional line; 2. The evaluation of regional frequency analysis is proposed based on Pedigree matrix , To quantify the quality uncertainty in the regional frequency analysis; 3. Combining the two types of uncertainty of quality and quantity in the uncertainty diagnosis chart to evaluate the quality uncertainty and the quantity uncertainty in the regional frequency analysis. Conclusion: The NUSAP method can effectively quantify the quality uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis, and combine the uncertainty of quality and quantity uncertainty through the diagnostic map of uncertainty, which can be used for water resources risk decision-making and water conservancy project design Provide an intuitive solution.