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选取我国30个省(区、市)2005~2012年的数据,采用因子分析和聚类分析的方法,建立了我国节能预警机制。通过因子分析,计算出能够反映各省份节能效果的综合得分,并在此基础上,利用极差标准化方法得到各省份的节能预警指数。结果显示:从全国来看,节能效果较好的省份主要集中在东部地区。技术水平因子的方差贡献最大,技术进步能够对节能效果起到重要的促进作用。考虑到我国区域间节能效果差异较大,对预警机制分区域进行探讨,得到了基于全国、东部、中部、西部四个不同地域范围的预警区间,能够起到较好的预警效果,并为改善节能效果提供政策建议。
The data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in our country from 2005 to 2012 are selected. By means of factor analysis and cluster analysis, the warning mechanism of energy conservation in our country is set up. Through factor analysis, we can calculate the comprehensive score that can reflect the energy saving effect of each province, and on this basis, we can get the energy-saving warning index of each province by using the standard deviation method. The results show that: From the national point of view, energy-saving provinces are mainly concentrated in the eastern region. The variance of technology level factor contributes the most, technological progress can play an important role in promoting energy saving. Considering that there are big differences between regions in energy saving in our country, this paper discusses the sub-regions of early-warning mechanism and obtains the early-warning interval based on four different geographic regions of China, eastern, central and western regions, which can provide better warning effect and improve Energy-saving policy to provide policy recommendations.