目的:对我国2015年核磁共振成像设备(MRI)配置数量进行预测。方法:分别采用指数平滑法、滞后模型预测法和需求法进行预测。结果:3种方法得到我国2015年MRI预测值分别为4 347台、4 209台、5 423台,中位数为4 347台。结论:尽管各种预测技术方法不同、结果不尽相同,但这些预测有助于为我国大型医用设备配置与规划提供循证信息。 Objective: To predict the number of MRI configurations in 2015 in China. Methods: Exponential smoothing, lagged model forecasting and demand forecasting were used respectively. Results: The three methods of MRI in China in 2015 were 4 347, 4 209 and 5 423 respectively, with a median of 4 347 units. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the different techniques and results, the predictions are helpful to provide evidence-based information for the configuration and planning of large-scale medical equipment in our country.