今年上半年,世界经济继续保持复苏态势,但复苏的不稳定不确定因素依然突出,增长预期再次由乐观转向悲观,复苏的艰巨性和曲折性充分显现。下半年,欧债危机可能进一步升级,美国“财政悬崖”临近,新兴经济体资本可能大规模外流,以及全球货币政策调整面临困境等,都将对世界经济增长前景构成威胁。总体来看,美国经济将继续复苏,欧洲经济可能陷入衰退,日本经济维持温和复苏的势头,同时新兴经济体经济增速进一步放缓的风险有所降低,世界经济将继续维持低速增长。 In the first half of this year, the world economy maintained its recovery trend. However, the unstable instability and uncertainty of the recovery remained prominent. The growth outlook was once again turned from optimism to pessimism, showing the arduous and tortuous nature of the recovery. In the second half of the year, the debt crisis in Europe may escalate further. The U.S. “fiscal cliff” is approaching, capital outflows from emerging economies may be massive, and difficulties in global monetary policy adjustment will pose a threat to the world economic growth prospects. On the whole, the U.S. economy will continue to recover, the European economy may fall into recession, the Japanese economy will maintain a moderate recovery, the risk of further slowdown in the emerging economies will be somewhat reduced, and the world economy will continue its slow growth.