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随着中国经济的飞速发展,中国已进入中等收入国家行列;在中等收入阶段,经济增长速度必然会出现减速现象,逐步从高速增长向中高速甚至低速增长转变。如何避免因经济增速减缓落入中等收入陷阱,抑或说如何继续保持中高速增长以跻身于发达国家行列?仍有许多亟需探讨和解决的问题。基于此,本文对中国经济增长减速的原因、方式选择及减速下限等进行了较为深入地探讨,并提出相应的对策建议。结果表明:为避免掉入中等收入陷阱,中国在中等收入阶段GDP年均增长率不能低于3.8%-4%。
With the rapid development of China’s economy, China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries. In the middle-income stage, the rate of economic growth will inevitably slow down and gradually shift from high-speed growth to medium-speed and even low-speed growth. How to avoid falling into the middle-income trap due to the slowing down of economic growth or how to keep the medium and high-speed growth so as to rank among the developed countries? There are still many problems that are urgently needed to be explored and solved. Based on this, this paper discusses in more detail the reasons for the slowdown of economic growth, the choice of modes and the lower limit of deceleration, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The result shows that in order to avoid falling into the middle income trap, the average annual growth rate of China’s GDP during the middle-income stage can not be lower than 3.8% -4%.