日本东北M_W9.0地震海啸在港池及邻近区域诱发的涡流危险性计算与评估分析

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海啸造成的灾害与损失并非都与淹没有关,特别是港口中海啸诱导的强流会对船只及海事设施产生重要的影响及损害.由于海啸流观测数据稀缺及海啸诱导涡流机制的不确定性,过去60年海啸科学主要集中于对海啸波特征及淹没过程的研究与分析,海啸流模拟及验证工作开展较少,导致对海啸流基本特征及其造成灾害现象的曲解.开展海啸诱导的涡流研究及预警服务显得尤为重要及紧迫.考虑快速海啸预警需要,综合对比海啸诱导涡流的物理框架及模型方法,探索兼顾效率与计算精度的海啸流模拟方法是本文的核心工作及出发点.通过分析浅层湍流相干结构(TCS)产生的主要物理耗散机制,确定了考虑2D水平耗散机制的非线性浅水方程可用于海啸涡流的模拟分析.基于高精、高分辨率有限体积模型Geoclaw建立了三个精细化的港口海啸流模型,模型分辨率为5m.利用基于海啸浮标反演的海啸源模型作为初始条件,模拟分析了日本东北地震海啸在远场的海啸波流特征.海啸波流特征模拟结果与观测吻合较好,结果可信.对比发现:波驱动的自由表面流,小的位相或波幅误差就会导致大的流速误差,流的模拟和预报相对波幅来说更具挑战性.研究了海啸波流能量在港池中的分布特征,得到:港池入口及防波堤两端常被强流控制,具有极高的危险性;相对于波幅的空间变化,海啸流具有更强的空间敏感性;所建立的高分辨率海啸模型模拟再现了日本海啸在近场的涡旋结构,给出了与观测基本一致的涡流特征.最后,引入海啸流危险等级标准,分析了港口海啸流危险性等级分布、船只疏散的安全深度及回港的时间周期.针对港口、海湾同时考虑海啸波流特征的海啸预警与评估对于港口应急管理者科学决策具有重要意义. Not all the disasters and losses caused by the tsunami are related to inundation, especially the strong currents induced by the tsunami in the port will have a significant impact and damage to the vessels and maritime facilities. Due to the scarcity of tsunami flow observation data and the uncertainty of the tsunami-induced eddy current mechanism, Tsunami science in the past 60 years has mainly focused on the research and analysis of tsunami wave characteristics and inundation processes, and has carried out fewer studies on the simulation and verification of tsunami currents, resulting in the misinterpretation of the basic characteristics of tsunami flow and the disasters that have caused them. And early warning service is very important and urgent.According to the needs of early warning of rapid tsunami, a comprehensive comparison of tsunami induced eddy current physical framework and model methods to explore both efficiency and accuracy of the tsunami flow simulation method is the core work of this paper and starting point.Through the analysis of shallow The main physical dissipation mechanism of turbulent coherent structures (TCS) is established, and the nonlinear shallow water equation considering 2D horizontal dissipation mechanism is determined for the simulation analysis of tsunami eddy currents.Based on Geoclaw, a high-precision and high-resolution finite volume model, three Delicate port tsunami flow model with model resolution of 5m. Utilization based on tsunami Tsunami source model as the initial condition, the tsunami wave characteristics in the far field of the earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan were modeled and analyzed.The simulation results of tsunami wave flow were in good agreement with the observations and the results were credible. The comparison shows that wave-driven freedom Surface flow, small phase or amplitude errors can lead to large flow rate errors, and the simulation and prediction of flow are more challenging with respect to their amplitudes. The distribution of tsunami wave energy in a harbor basin is studied, and is given by: And both ends of the breakwater are often controlled by strong currents, which is extremely dangerous. Compared with the spatial variation of the amplitude, the tsunami flow has a stronger spatial sensitivity. The established high-resolution tsunami model simulates the Japanese tsunami in the near field The eddy structure is basically the same as the observation.Finally, by introducing the standard of dangerous level of the tsunami flow, the risk grade distribution of the tsunami flow in the port, the safety depth of the evacuation of the vessel and the time period of returning to Hong Kong are analyzed.Aiming at the problems of the port, The tsunami warning and assessment considering both the characteristics of the tsunami wave and the Gulf is of great significance to the scientific decision-making of port emergency managers.
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