本文以江西丰城稻区1957—1982年以来的虫情、气象以及耕作栽培制度等历史资料为依据,经对影响三化螟种群动态的生态因素分析,选出一批待选因子.然后运用多元回归分析方法,通过电子计算机运算筛选关键因子,并建立起三、四代三化螟发生量的中长期预测模型.经试报检验,预报效果尚好. Based on the historical data of insect, meteorology and tillage and cultivation system since 1957-1982 in Fengcheng of Jiangxi Province, this paper selected a number of candidate factors by analyzing the ecological factors that affect the population dynamics of the rice stem borer, Multiple regression analysis method was used to screen the key factors through computer calculation and to establish medium- and long-term prediction models for the occurrence of three or four generations of Chilo suppressalis.The forecast results are still good.