我今天所要讲的题目是“经济计量预测、精度及改进技术”。我认为,预测有两个方面的含义:一是预先告知未来,二是探讨一些假设情况,也就是未来可能发生什么,用英语讲即关于“What if(如果…会…)”的计算。第一个问题是为什么我们的预测会发生错误、根源所在。经济学家出现错误,第一个根源是因为我们并不真正了解过去。在美国,有各种各样的信息来源,我们利用对过去历史的 The topic I am going to talk about today is “Economic Measurement, Precision and Improvement Techniques.” I think the prediction has two meanings: one is to inform the future in advance, the other is to explore some hypothetical situations, that is, what may happen in the future, and to speak in English about the calculation of “What if.” The first question is why our forecast will go wrong, rooted in it. The first reason why economists make mistakes is because we do not really understand the past. In the United States, there are a variety of sources of information that we make use of for the past history