目的探讨乌鲁木齐市麻疹类(简称麻类)疫苗接种的时间趋势,为疫苗分配管理提供参考依据。方法应用SPSS21.0进行统计分析,采用时间序列分析方法进行季节分解、模型建立等,模型检验标准ɑ=0.05,P<0.05时认为模型无效。结果 1报表数据显示,2008—2014年麻类疫苗和接种剂次接种数量逐年上升。2该研究经过多次拟合后,确定麻类第1和第2剂次的时间序列模型均符合自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)(1,0,0)模型,提示模型有效,经检验P>0.05。应用已经建立好的模型预测2015年5—7月份数据,结果显示,实际值均在预测值范围内;3麻类疫苗第1与第2剂次均满足1—8月份接种数量逐渐上升,9—12月份接种数量下降,接种数量高峰月份为5—9月份。结论麻类疫苗接种数量在逐年上升,分月份分析发现,麻类疫苗接种数量存在一定的变化规律,基本符合ARIMA的要求,通过建立的模型,预测每月的接种数量比较可靠,可以考虑在后期疫苗使用计划的制定中加以应用。 Objective To explore the time trend of measles vaccine in Urumqi and provide a reference for vaccine administration. Methods SPSS21.0 was used for statistical analysis. Seasonal decomposition and model establishment were carried out by time series analysis. The model test standard ɑ = 0.05, and the model was invalid when P <0.05. Results 1 The report data shows that the number of vaccinations for bovine vaccine and vaccination increased from 2008 to 2014 year by year. 2 After multiple fitting, the time series models of first and second bast was determined to conform to ARIMA (1,0,0) model, which indicates that the model is valid. After the test P> 0.05. Applying the established model to predict the May-July 2015 data, the results showed that the actual values ​​were all within the predicted values. The first and second doses of 3 B vaccine met the gradually increasing number of vaccinations in January-August. 9 In December, the number of inoculation decreased, and the peak month of inoculation was from May to September. Conclusions The quantity of bovine vaccines is increasing year by year. According to monthly analysis, the quantity of bovine vaccines varies a little and basically meets the requirements of ARIMA. Through the established model, it is estimated that the monthly vaccination quantity is more reliable and can be considered in later stage Vaccine use plan to develop the application.