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1985年以来中国三大球优秀运动队运动员人数都出现了大幅度下降,其中足球降幅最大,排球变化幅度最小,但是运用二次指数平滑的方法对三大球优秀运动员人数进行预测,预测结果排球运动员人数一直处于一个下降的趋势,篮球和足球运动员人数开始缓慢增长。通过文献资料法、数理统计法等研究方法对三大球运动员人数动态变化进行研究分析,试图找出一套适应中国三大球市场的管理体制与运作机制,确保三大球运动共同发展。
Since 1985, the number of athletes in the three major elite sports teams in China has dropped drastically. Among them, the largest drop in football and the smallest change in volleyball, but the use of second exponential smoothing method to predict the number of elite three ball players predict the outcome of volleyball The number of athletes has been in a downward trend, the number of basketball and football players began to grow slowly. Through literature research, mathematical statistics and other research methods to analyze the dynamic changes of the number of the three ball players in an attempt to find out a set of management system and operation mechanism to adapt to China’s three major ball markets to ensure the common development of the three ball games.