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目的研究气象因子与流行性腮腺炎(流腮)发病的关联性。方法采用时间序列方法,利用广州市2005—2012年全人群每日流腮发病人数的数据和同期的气温、相对湿度和气压、风速等主要气象资料,应用分布滞后非线性模型分析气象因子与流腮发病的关联性。结果广州市2005—2012年共报告流腮49 760例,日最高、日平均、日最低气温中位数分别为28.3、24.2和21.2℃;日平均相对湿度中位数为75.0%;日平均日照时间中位数为3.9 h;日平均风速中位数为1.5 m/s;日平均气压中位数为1 007.1 hPa。Spearman等级相关分析结果,气温(日最高、日平均、日最低气温)、日平均相对湿度、日平均风速与流腮的发病呈正相关(r=0.305、0.314、0.321、0.207、0.215,均P<0.01),日平均气压与流腮的发病呈负相关(r=-0.460,P<0.01)。日平均气温为34.2℃,滞后0 d时相对危险度(RR)最大,为1.05(95%CI:1.02~1.10)。日平均相对湿度为99%,滞后24 d时RR值最大,为1.39(95%CI:1.03~1.89)。以各气象因子自身的中位数为参照值,日平均气温、日平均相对湿度的第99百分位数(31.7℃、95%)在总滞后时间30、24 d对流腮发病的RR分别为1.81(1.41~2.32)、1.28(1.02~1.59)。气温对流腮发病的效应中,女性所受的热效应和冷效应均大于男性,热效应随着年龄的增长而增大。结论平均气温、相对湿度等气象因子可能是流腮发病的重要影响因素,夏季应对易感人群给予更多的关注。
Objective To study the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps (mumps). Methods The time series method was used to analyze the daily meteorological factors and flow in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2012, using the data of daily average grisea incidence, temperature, relative humidity and air pressure, wind speed and other major meteorological data in Guangzhou during the same period. Gills incidence of relevance. Results A total of 49 760 cheeks were reported in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2012. The highest daily average daily sunshine temperature was 28.3, 24.2 and 21.2 ℃, respectively. The median daily average relative humidity was 75.0% The median time was 3.9 h, the median daily mean wind speed was 1.5 m / s, and the median daily mean pressure was 1 007.1 hPa. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that temperature (daily highest, daily average, daily minimum temperature), daily average relative humidity and daily average wind speed were positively correlated with the incidence of mumps (r = 0.305,0.314,0.321,0.207,0.215, P < 0.01). The mean daily air pressure was negatively correlated with the incidence of mumps (r = -0.460, P <0.01). The average daily temperature was 34.2 ℃. The maximum relative risk (RR) was 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02-1.10) when the lag was 0 d. The average relative humidity was 99%, and the maximum RR was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.03 ~ 1.89) at 24 days after lag. Taking the median of each meteorological factor as the reference value, RR of daily gout and mean daily relative humidity at the 99th percentile (31.7 ℃, 95%) of total melatonin time 30 and 24 d were 1.81 (1.41-2.32), 1.28 (1.02-1.59). In the effects of temperature goggles, the thermal effects and cold effects on women are greater than those on men, and the thermal effects increase with age. Conclusion The meteorological factors such as average temperature and relative humidity may be the important influencing factors for the development of grifola and pay more attention to the susceptible population in summer.