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自 1 994年日本著名学者森岛通夫提出“中日韩经济合作体”的构想以来 ,越来越多的学者主张构建“中日韩经济合作体”。本文利用小型的中日韩三国经济的计量模型和贸易连接模型对中日韩三国经济的相互依赖关系进行了模拟分析。结果显示 ,中日韩三国的财政扩大对本国GDP的影响很大 ,虽然对其他国家的 GDP也有影响 ,但是其影响还很小。本文还利用模型分析了日元和人民币对美元的汇率变动情况。结果表明 ,日元对美元的升值使日本对中国和韩国的出口、日本的总出口有所减少 ,使贸易对象国的中国和韩国对日本的出口有所增加 ,而人民币对美元的贬值使我国的 GDP和总出口、对日本和韩国的出口都有所增加。
Since the famous Japanese scholar Morimoto Morimoto put forward the concept of “China-Japan-Korea Economic Cooperative” in 1994, more and more scholars advocate the establishment of “China-Japan-South Korea economic cooperation body.” In this paper, we simulate the interdependence of economy in China, Japan and South Korea by using the econometric model and trade link model of the small three economies in China, Japan and South Korea. The results show that the fiscal expansion of China, Japan and South Korea have a great impact on their own GDP, although the impact on other countries’ GDP also has little effect. This paper also uses the model to analyze the changes of the exchange rate of Japanese yen and Renminbi against the U.S. dollar. The results show that the appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar led Japan’s exports to China and South Korea and Japan’s total exports to decline, so that exports from China and South Korea to the countries of destination increased as Japan’s exports. The devaluation of the renminbi against the U.S. GDP and total exports, exports to Japan and South Korea have increased.