养老保险长期精算分析是监控基金长期平衡的重要工具。确定精算模型之后,工资增长率、利率和投资收益率等参数取值的指数化作用会在很大程度上影响分析结果,进而左右养老保险的长期政策取向。一般来说,养老保险长期精算分析的时间跨度达几十年。如果我们做50年期分析,根据经济周期理论,基本上是一个长波经济周期的长度。 Long-term actuarial analysis of pension insurance is an important tool for monitoring long-term balance of funds. After determining the actuarial model, the indexation of the wage growth rate, interest rate and return on investment will largely affect the results of the analysis, thus affecting the long-term policy orientation of pension insurance. In general, the long-term actuarial analysis of pension insurance has spanned decades. If we do 50-year analysis, according to the economic cycle theory, it is basically the length of a long-wave economic cycle.