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3月11日以来,日本地震、海啸、核泄漏三重灾害,造成社会经济重大损失。日本经济短期受重创,中期将提振,但长期低迷的局面不会改变;日本地震不会改变全球经济复苏大势;对中国经济的影响利弊共存,但影响有限。地震重创了日本能源体系,将引发全球油气市场供需出现一些新变化:日本部分炼厂关闭致使亚太地区石油供需结构发生变化,成品油价格可能上涨,轻重原油价差可能扩大;核电危机将促使日本大量增加LNG进口,并将影响全球能源结构;日本化工产品生产受到冲击,带动全球部分化工品价格升高。日本核电危机造成各国对核电安全的担忧,可能影响世界各国核电发展,导致油气需求增加、中长期油价走高。日本大地震启示中国:应完善对突发事件的应急响应机制;加快推进天然气价格机制改革,加快发展天然气;适当调整原油和成品油进出口结构,统筹运作;推进与资源国的能源合作,确保能源的长期稳定供应。
Since March 11, Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear leak have caused the triple-devastated disaster and caused heavy social and economic losses. Japan’s economy suffered heavy losses in the short term, but medium-term growth will be boosted. However, the downturn in the long term will not change. The earthquake in Japan will not change the general trend of global economic recovery. The impact on China’s economy will have both advantages and disadvantages, but the impact will be limited. Earthquake hit the Japanese energy system will trigger some new changes in the supply and demand of the global oil and gas market: the closure of some refineries in Japan led to changes in oil supply and demand structure in the Asia Pacific region, oil prices may rise, light crude oil spreads may expand; nuclear crisis will prompt a large number of Japan Increasing LNG imports will affect the global energy structure. Production of Japanese chemical products will be hit and the prices of some chemical products in the world will increase. Japan’s nuclear crisis poses concerns about the safety of nuclear power in various countries and may affect the development of nuclear power in various countries in the world, resulting in an increase in demand for oil and gas and an increase in long-term and medium-term oil prices. Japan Earthquake Inspires China: Improve Emergency Response Mechanism to Sudden Events; Accelerate the Reform of Natural Gas Price Mechanism and Accelerate the Development of Natural Gas; Properly Adjust the Structure of Import and Export of Crude Oil and Refined Oil, Integrate Operation; Promote Energy Cooperation with Resource Countries to Ensure Long-term energy supply.