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近年来新疆艾滋病发病率较高,预防控制工作严峻,此种情况下,基于2008年1月至2014年12月的艾滋病发病率数据,采用ARIMA方法及广义回归神经网络方法建立了ARIMA-GRNN组合预测模型,并用2015年1月至5月的数据检验模型预测能力,结果模型能较好地对新疆艾滋病发病率做预测,这可为新疆艾滋病的预防控制提供一定的科学参考.
In recent years, Xinjiang has a high incidence of AIDS and severe prevention and control work. Based on the AIDS incidence data from January 2008 to December 2014, an ARIMA-GRNN combination was established by ARIMA method and generalized regression neural network The model was used to test the predictive ability of the model from January to May in 2015. The model can predict the incidence of AIDS in Xinjiang well and provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of AIDS in Xinjiang.