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[目的]探讨气温对城区居民死亡的影响。[方法]收集2000~2004年广州市某城区居民死亡资料和相应时段的气象资料,分析热日、冷日、平日3类天气情况下居民死亡及死因的变化。[结果]广州市某区2000~2004年合计死亡15 802例,月死亡率为40.79/10万~89.46/10万(62.25/10万±9.22/10万);同期月平均气温为(13.6~30.5)℃(22.9±5.3)℃。观察期间,逐月死亡率与月平均气温呈负相关(r=-0.59,P<0.01)。死亡率在冬季最冷月(1月)前后达最高峰,其他季节波动不大,在夏季最热月(8月)前后形成1个相对高峰。夏季最高气温在34℃以上时,随气温的升高死亡率显著增加;冬季最低气温在10℃以下时,死亡率显著增加。不同日均气温条件下,居民前5位死因中恶性肿瘤死亡数占全死因死亡数比例的差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。2004年6月27日至7月3日持续高温,6月25日至7月9日的半月内居民3日平均死亡30.6例,是当年夏季3日平均死亡数(24.1例)的1.27倍。[结论]广州市城区气温变化对某区居民死亡有显著影响,居民死亡率在气温高或气温低时均呈升高趋势。
[Objective] To investigate the effect of temperature on the death of urban residents. [Method] The meteorological data of residents’ deaths in a city in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2004 and corresponding periods were collected. The changes of death and cause of death were analyzed under the conditions of hot day, cold day and normal day. [Results] The total number of deaths from 15 802 in a certain area of Guangzhou from 2000 to 2004 was 40.79 / 100000 to 89.46 / 100000 (62.25 / 100000 ± 9.22 / 100000). The average monthly temperature was 13.6 ~ 30.5) ° C (22.9 ± 5.3) ° C. During the observation period, the monthly mortality rate was negatively correlated with the monthly mean temperature (r = -0.59, P <0.01). Mortality peaked around the coldest month in January (January), with little fluctuation in other seasons and a relative peak around the hottest month of summer (August). When the summer maximum temperature was above 34 ℃, the mortality increased markedly with the increase of air temperature. In winter, when the minimum temperature was below 10 ℃, the mortality increased significantly. Under the condition of different average daily temperature, there was a significant difference in the proportions of deaths from all causes of death among the top five death causes among residents (P <0.05). From June 27 to July 3, 2004, the residents continued to live in a high temperature for 30 days from June 25 to July 9, with an average of 30.6 deaths on the 3rd, which was 1.27 times of the average number of deaths on the 3rd of the summer (24.1 cases). [Conclusion] The change of temperature in urban area of Guangzhou had a significant impact on the death of residents in a certain area, and the mortality rate of residents showed a rising trend when the temperature was high or the temperature was low.