本文以客运量预测为实例,从自变量的选择到预测模型的建立、参数检验以及预测结果分析都进行了论述,并对规划中预测存在的问题提出了自己的看法,对编制“十一五”道路运输业发展规划具有一定的现实意义。 In this paper, passenger traffic forecasting is taken as an example, from the selection of independent variables to the establishment of the forecasting model, parameter test and forecasting results analysis are discussed, and put forward their own views on the problems in the planning of the forecast, "Road transport industry development plan has a certain practical significance.