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许多西方文献研究认为房价从长期看由经济基本面决定,并通过均衡价格理论进行了论证。但本文利用1998～2010年中国房地产季度统计数据分析,发现我国房价与经济基本面缺乏稳定的协整关系;我国房地产价格趋势偏离了局部均衡分析的均衡价格,且房价供求决定方程发生了结构性改变。中国特殊的房地产市场,尤其是受土地政策和心理预期因素影响,很大程度上逼近于一种投机品市场。本文以资源经济学中著名的霍太林法则为基础建立模型,计量分析发现,从阶段特征看心理预期对房价有显著的正向影响;土地供给和房屋租价比、银行利率对房价有显著的负向影响,并提出相应的政策建议。
Many studies in the western literature think house prices are determined by the economic fundamentals in the long run and are demonstrated by the theory of equilibrium prices. However, this paper analyzes the quarterly statistical data of Chinese real estate from 1998 to 2010 and finds that there is no stable cointegration between real estate prices and economic fundamentals in our country. The trend of real estate prices in our country deviates from the equilibrium price of partial equilibrium analysis, and the structural equation change. China’s special real estate market, especially affected by land policy and psychological expectations, is largely approaching a speculative market. Based on the well-known law of Huotai Lin in resource economics, this essay establishes a model. According to the econometric analysis, it is found that the psychological expectation has a significant positive impact on house prices from the stage characteristics. The land supply and house rent, bank interest rates have a significant negative impact on house prices Impact, and make the appropriate policy recommendations.