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水资源系统脆弱性是当前水问题研究的热点问题,在综合脆弱性和脆弱性分层面两方面需深入研究。论文通过对水资源利用系统脆弱性形成过程的分析,从水资源自然禀赋、水资源开发利用程度和用水效率等方面,构建符合过程机理的水资源利用系统脆弱性模型,旨在对脆弱性分层面进行深入研究。针对当联系分量系数取值具有峰值较宽的分布特征时,可能导致基于三角模糊数的联系数存在较大误差的问题,进一步分析差异度系数取值的特征,以标准阈值为参数构造差异度系数的梯形模糊数,提出基于梯形模糊数联系数的评价方法,并应用于安徽省水资源利用系统脆弱性评价。应用结果表明,2001—2014年安徽省水资源利用系统脆弱性等级在3.611~2.493之间呈波动变化,2014年水资源利用系统脆弱性为轻脆弱,较2001年中度脆弱有明显改善;该方法避免了联系分量系数取值具有峰值较宽的分布特征时可能存在较大误差,能更准确地反映水资源利用系统脆弱性客观实际状况。
The vulnerability of water resources system is a hot issue in the current research on water issues and needs to be further studied in the aspect of comprehensive stratification of vulnerability and vulnerability. Based on the analysis of the formation process of water resources utilization system vulnerability, this dissertation constructs a vulnerability assessment model of water resources utilization system that is in accordance with the process mechanism from the perspectives of natural endowments of water resources, water resources development and utilization, and water use efficiency. Depth study. Aiming at the problem that there is a big error in the connection number based on the triangular fuzzy number when the value of the contact component coefficient has a wide peak, further analysis is made on the characteristics of the value of the difference coefficient, and the standard threshold is used as a parameter to construct the difference Coefficient of trapezoidal fuzzy number, proposed based on trapezoidal fuzzy number linked to the evaluation method, and applied to Anhui Province, water resources utilization vulnerability assessment system. The application results show that the vulnerability level of water resources utilization system in Anhui Province fluctuated from 3.611 to 2.493 in 2001-2014. The vulnerability of water use system in 2014 was weaker than that in mid-2001, which was significantly improved. The method avoids that there may be large errors when the value of the correlation component coefficient has a wide peak, and can more accurately reflect the objective reality of the vulnerability of water resources utilization system.