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商品价格的大多数波动以及短期波动都能通过基本面因素来解释,实际供需情况是决定商品价格走势最关键、最长期的因素。但单纯用供需缺口来解释前一阶段的商品牛市是不够的,因为包括大宗商品市场在内的各个市场,在实物需求的背景下,其投资功能正日益发挥着重要的作用,大宗商品的金融属性日益彰显。特别是在后危机时代,面对经济滞胀,为追求保值,投入商品市场的资金飞速扩张,大量的资金涌向商品及相关的衍生工具领域,自然强化了商品市场的投机性。
Most fluctuations in commodity prices and short-term fluctuations can be explained by the fundamentals. The actual supply and demand are the most crucial and long-term factors that determine the trend of commodity prices. However, it is not enough to explain the commodity bull market in the previous stage simply by using the gap between supply and demand. Since all the markets, including the commodity market, are playing an increasingly important role in the real demand for commodities, the investment function of commodities is playing an increasingly important role. Increasingly obvious attributes. Especially in the post-crisis era, in the face of economic stagflation and the rapid expansion of funds invested in commodity markets in pursuit of hedging, a large amount of funds have flocked to the commodities and related derivatives fields and naturally intensified speculation in commodity markets.