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站在当前时点,上半年的牛市行情基本走完,三季度可能面临调整,四季度初有望再迎“牛陡”。2014年上半年无疑是利率债牛市,从收益率曲线形态的变化来看,经历了“牛陡—调整—牛平”三个阶段。但是,站在当前时点,我们判断上半年的牛市行情基本走完,三季度可能面临调整,四季度初有望再迎“牛陡”。对于下半年市场静态资金供求,我们认为,广义资金需求主要来自于债券净供给和新增信贷,由此可倒推基础货币需求(除货币乘数)。基础货币主要有5个供给项:财政存款、现金回流、外汇占款、公开市场净投放和存款准备金调整,净投放中包含正回购、逆回购、国库现金招标、
Standing at the current time, the bull market in the first half basically finished, the third quarter may face adjustment, is expected to welcome Q4 “steep”. The first half of 2014 is undoubtedly the interest rate bond bull market. From the change of the yield curve, it has experienced three stages: “steep steep-adjusted-steep flat”. However, standing at the current time, we judge that the bull market in the first half of the year is basically completed and may face adjustment in the third quarter. Hopefully, we will welcome the arrival of the bull market in early Q4. For the supply and demand of static funds in the market in the second half of the year, we think that the generalized capital requirement mainly comes from the net supply of bonds and new credit, so that the base money demand (except monetary multiplier) can be backdulped. There are five main supply items of the base currency: fiscal deposits, cash backflows, foreign exchange payments, net open market and reserve reserve adjustments. The net release includes positive repurchase, reverse repurchase, treasury cash tender,