任何曾在加利福尼亚州住过的人都能作证：公众的注意力大多正集中在关于大地震预测的争论上。可惜，这种注意只集中在一天至一周的决定性预测方面。但是，这种争论的一些参加者已经指出［１，２］，现今对于鉴定大地震可靠的短期前兆的努力是很不成功的，意味着地震是这样... Anyone who has lived in California can testify: Most of the public’s attention is focused on the controversy over the big earthquake prediction. Unfortunately, this attention has focused only on the decisive predictions from one day to one week. However, some participants in this debate have pointed out [1, 2] that today’s efforts to identify credible short-term precursors for large earthquakes are very unsuccessful, meaning that earthquakes are like this ...