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尽管生产者乐享了几年高价 ,目前 ,他们却因产品价格有大的下降而经受折磨。从历史观点来看 ,目前的状况是每 5～ 7年常发生一次周期性下降。本文使用时间-趋势分解技术去鉴别这些周期和统计方法 ,以便为种类纷繁的金属价格找到各周期的持续时间。只要给定了这些周期一般有多长和多么严重的观念 ,矿业就能妥善策划以平安度过价格下滑困境 ,并从周期性涨价中获益。例如 ,选择新项目的投资时机 ,以求从周期性涨价中捞取好处 ,能大大提高项目获利能力
Despite the high prices enjoyed by producers for several years, they are now tormented by a big drop in product prices. From a historical point of view, the current situation is a recurring periodic decline every 5 to 7 years. This paper uses time-trend decomposition techniques to identify these cycles and statistical methods to find the duration of each cycle for a wide variety of metal prices. Given the notion of how long and how often these cycles are generally occurring, mining can properly plan to weather the price downturn and benefit from cyclical price increases. For example, choosing an investment opportunity for a new project to maximize benefits from cyclical price increases can greatly enhance project profitability