论文部分内容阅读
资本市场受人们的乐观贪婪心理影响容易形成泡沫,而在恐惧悲观心理的影响下泡沫又会破灭,市场当中新加入的投资者通常市场专业知识不足,缺乏交易经验,因此极大地增加了股票市场当中的非理性因素。众所周知,我国股票市场当中机构投资者同成熟市场相比比例并不高,由此造成的非理性因素也较大。本文通过选取A股新增账户数以及换手率作为投资者心理因素的代理变量,通过建立VAR模型进行Granger检验分析得出结论:不理性的投资行为,如羊群行为和过度投机对A股市场的走势产生了影响,加剧了A股市场的波动。鉴于此,我国股市应在培育理性市场方面做出更大的努力。
The optimistic and greedy psychological impact of the capital market, the formation of a bubble easily, and in the fear of pessimism under the influence of bubble will burst, the newly added investors in the market usually lack of market expertise, lack of trading experience, thus greatly increasing the stock market Among the irrational factors. As we all know, institutional investors in China’s stock market, compared with the proportion of mature markets is not high, the resulting non-rational factors are also larger. This paper selects the number of A-share new accounts and turnover as a proxy for the psychological factors of investors, through the establishment of VAR model Granger test analysis concluded: irrational investment behavior, such as herd behavior and excessive speculation on the A shares The market trend has had an impact, aggravating the volatility of the A-share market. In view of this, our stock market should make greater efforts to cultivate a rational market.