一、引言台风路径预报是台风预报的关健,近年来国内外从不同途径,建立了不少客观预报模式,特别是统计学和动力学相结合,已成为目前台风路径预报中比较有成效的一种客观预报方法,美国的NHC-73,上海的SD_(75)和浙江的ZMI-80,在业务预报中都证明比单纯的统计预报要好。目前,在国内由于数值预报资料的不足,以及预报模式的变动和不稳定性,再加上 I. INTRODUCTION Typhoon track forecasting is the key to typhoon forecasting. In recent years, many objective forecasting modes have been established from different channels at home and abroad. In particular, the combination of statistics and dynamics has become more effective in typhoon track forecasting An objective method of forecasting, NHC-73 in the United States, SD_75 in Shanghai and ZMI-80 in Zhejiang, proved to be better than pure statistical prediction in business forecasts. At present, due to the lack of numerical forecast data in the country, as well as the change and instability of forecast modes,