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中国反复、多次出现大范围持续性雾霾天气使碳排放与经济增长问题成为理论界研究的热点,选取1978~2012年中国历年相关统计数据,采用Gregory-Hansen协整检验方法结合结构突变分析,实证检验我国碳排放与能源消费、经济增长及产业结构的关系。研究结果显示,中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线为正U型,且该曲线存在结构突变;经济增长、能源消费、产业结构对碳排放都具有显著的增排效应。因此,建议在保证经济可持续的中高速增长前提下,通过提高能源利用效率、推进产业结构调整等措施来降低碳排放量,使“APEC蓝”能够成为一种“新常态”。
Repeatedly and repeatedly, a large number of continuous haze days make carbon emission and economic growth become the focus of theoretical research. The relevant statistical data from 1978 to 2012 in China are selected. The co-integration test with Gregory-Hansen method and structural abrupt change analysis , Empirical test of China’s carbon emissions and energy consumption, economic growth and industrial structure. The results show that the Kuznets Curve of China’s carbon emission environment is positive U-shaped, and there is a structural change in the curve. Economic growth, energy consumption and industrial structure have a significant emission-enhancing effect on carbon emissions. Therefore, it is suggested that measures such as improving energy efficiency and promoting industrial restructuring should be adopted to reduce carbon emissions under the premise of ensuring medium-and-high-speed economic growth, so that “APEC Blue” can become a “new normal” .