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白背飞虱是我国水稻上的重要害虫,以贵州一季中稻区白背飞虱为研究对象,运用马尔科夫链理论,以代表站点锦屏1990-2011年的白背飞虱田间发生程度的时间序列资料,构建了1~5阶的概率转移矩阵,以预报年前5年的连续发生级别预测第6年的发生状态.回报锦屏17年的结果,得到了较高的历史符合率,达到了82%,对锦屏2012年白背飞虱田间发生级别的预测结果也符合当年的实际发生情况.
The whitebacked planthopper is an important pest on rice in China. Taking the whitebacked planthopper (Sogatella furcifera) in the first quarter of Guizhou Province as the research object, using Markov chain theory to represent the field occurrence of whitebacked planthopper in Jinping, Jinping, 1990-2011 Time series of data to construct a probability transfer matrix of 1 to 5 order to predict the occurrence of the 6th year of the continuous occurrence level of 5 years before the year of 2005. The results of 17 years of Jinping were reported and a high historical coincidence rate was obtained, Reaching 82%. The forecast result of the field occurrence level of whitebacked planthopper in 2012 in Jinping is also in line with the actual occurrence of that year.