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本文首次以支出法衡量保险业发展情况,研究保险业内在发展规律,并运用HP滤波技术测算出我国保险周期约为5～7年。通过建立向量自回归模型对保险业产出与GDP进行格兰杰因果关系检验,发现我国保险业的发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因。由此推导出协整模型与误差修正模型,表明保险业对我国经济增长具有显著贡献。在此基础上,通过脉冲响应函数得出保险业的正面冲击在滞后三期时对经济增长的贡献最大,滞后四期时达到稳定状态的结论。
This paper first measures the development of insurance industry by means of expenditure method, studies the law of inherent development in insurance industry, and calculates the insurance period of our country about 5-7 years by HP filter technology. By establishing a vector autoregressive model to test the Granger causality between insurance output and GDP, we find that the development of insurance in our country is the Granger reason of economic growth. The co-integration model and the error correction model are deduced, which shows that the insurance industry makes a significant contribution to China’s economic growth. On this basis, we conclude that the positive impact of the insurance industry on the third phase lags behind the economic growth through the impulse response function, and reaches the steady state in the fourth lag.