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目的研究大气污染急性暴露对居民脑卒中发生的影响。方法采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,在控制脑卒中发生的长期和季节趋势、气象因素、“星期几效应”等可能混杂因素的基础上,分析了上海市某区2004年1月1日至2007年12月31日大气污染与居民每日脑卒中发生数的关系。结果大气污染水平滞后天数为0～1d时,PM10、SO2和NO2浓度每增加10μg/m3,居民脑卒中发生的相对危险度分别为1.02(95%可信限:1.01～1.03)、1.05(95%可信限:1.04～1.06)和1.09(95%可信限:1.08～1.10)。结论上海市某区目前的大气污染水平对居民脑卒中发生有影响。
Objective To study the impact of acute exposure to air pollution on resident stroke. Methods Based on the semiparametric generalized time series model, the long-term and seasonal trend of stroke occurrence, meteorological factors and the possible confounding factors such as the “day-of-week” effect were analyzed. From January 1 to December 31, 2007 the relationship between air pollution and daily stroke rate among residents. Results The relative risk of stroke was 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01 ~ 1.03) and 1.05 (95) for every 10 μg / m3 increase of PM10, SO2 and NO2 lag days when air pollution lag days was 0 ~ % Confidence limits: 1.04-1.06) and 1.09 (95% confidence limits: 1.08-1.10). Conclusion The current level of air pollution in a district of Shanghai has an impact on residents’ stroke.