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准确理解金融体系与经济波动的关系,对于一国的经济发展和金融系统风险防范至关重要。本文从经济学视角,以日本近现代历史上爆发的两次金融危机为线索,探讨日本的金融体系与实体经济的关系。研究发现,在经济萧条期,银行危机一旦产生会迅速危及实体部门,实体部门的萧条会使银行资产负债状况恶化,两者之间一旦形成恶性循环,对经济发展极为不利。实现金融体系与实体经济协调可持续发展的前提在于,准确理解金融体系自身的运行机制,并把握好金融体系与实体经济的匹配度。目前,日本为摆脱长期萧条采取了前所未有的货币宽松政策,但长期效果很难显现,原因在于货币量的增加是经济复苏以后所带来的结果,而不是起因。
An accurate understanding of the relationship between the financial system and economic fluctuations is crucial for the economic development of a country and the prevention of financial system risks. This article explores the relationship between Japan’s financial system and the real economy from the perspective of economics and from the two financial crises that broke out in Japan’s modern history. The study found that during the economic depression, once the bank crisis will soon endanger the real sector, the real sector depression will deteriorate the bank’s balance sheet. Once a vicious circle is formed between the banks, the economic development is extremely unfavorable. The prerequisite for realizing the coordinated and sustainable development of the financial system and the real economy lies in the accurate understanding of the operating mechanism of the financial system itself and a good grasp of the matching between the financial system and the real economy. At present, Japan has adopted an unprecedented monetary easing policy to get rid of the long-term recession. However, the long-term effect is hard to come by because the increase in the amount of money is the result of the economic recovery but not the cause.