论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨周宁县肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的流行强度和发病趋势。方法应用逐步回归分析法,将HFRS各年发病率(Y)为因变量,平均鼠密度(X1)、总鼠带病毒率(X2)、带病毒鼠密度(X3)、带病毒鼠指数(X4)、8～9月降水量(X5)为自变量,进行逐步回归分析。结果最后选入X1、X5建立的“最优”回归方程为^y=11.789899+0.594954 X1-0.338844 X5。Y与X1、X5均有线性相关,决定系数R2=0.9526,意味着Y的变异中有95.26%能被X1、X5所决定,可通过控制X1、X5而消除。结论在流行高峰期(周宁县为11～12月)前的10月,根据8～9月降水量的高低进行科学灭鼠,同时搞好防鼠和疫苗接种等工作,以控制HFRS流行。提示该预测模型对HFRS的监测和疫情控制有一定的指导意义。
Objective To investigate the prevalence and trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Zhouning County. Methods The stepwise regression analysis was used to analyze the annual incidence of HFRS (Y) as dependent variable, average rat density (X1), total rat virus (X2), virus rat density (X3) ), Precipitation from August to September (X5) as independent variables, and stepwise regression analysis. Results The “optimal” regression equation established by the final selection of X1 and X5 is ^ y = 11.789899 + 0.594954 X1-0.338844 X5. Y is linearly related to X1 and X5. The coefficient of determination R2 = 0.9526 means that 95.26% of Y’s variation can be determined by X1 and X5 and can be eliminated by controlling X1 and X5. Conclusions In the pre-epidemic peak (Zhouning County for 11 ~ December) in October, according to the level of precipitation from August to September scientific rodent control, while doing a good job rodent and vaccination work to control the epidemic of HFRS. It is suggested that this prediction model is of guiding significance for the monitoring of HFRS and epidemic control.