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基于改进的混凝土碳化深度预测模型,结合世界气象组织(IPCC)对CO2浓度和气候变暖的预测数据,综合考虑钢筋截面面积、屈服强度和粘结强度的降低,建立不同CO2排放策略下未来90 a公路桥梁抗弯强度退化时变模型,详细研究了CO2浓度和气候变暖对钢筋混凝土桥梁结构抗弯承载能力可靠度的影响。针对广州地区一座钢筋混凝土桥梁展开分析,计算结果表明:A1F1和A1B排放策略下混凝土桥梁的承载能力均值下降速度快于CO2浓度不变的情形;服役至2100年,A1F1和A1B排放策略下桥梁体系可靠度指标分别比CO2浓度不变情形低0.5和0.42,首次加固维修时间分别比CO2浓度不变情形早13 a和10 a。
Based on the improved prediction model of concrete carbonation depth and the prediction data of CO2 concentration and climate warming of the World Meteorological Organization (IPCC), considering the reduction of cross-sectional area, yield strength and bond strength, a Degradation time-varying model of flexural strength of highway bridges, the effect of CO2 concentration and climate warming on the reliability of flexural capacity of reinforced concrete bridges was studied in detail. According to the analysis of a reinforced concrete bridge in Guangzhou area, the calculation results show that the average carrying capacity of concrete bridges under the A1F1 and A1B emission strategies declines faster than the CO2 concentration. In service to 2100, under the A1F1 and A1B emission strategies, the bridge system The reliability indexes are respectively 0.5 and 0.42 lower than that of the constant CO2 concentration, and the time of the first reinforcement and maintenance is 13 and 10 years earlier than the same CO2 concentration respectively.