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以1997年～2007年我国航空货运量的统计数据为基础,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和回归分析模型进行组合优化,建立了基于诱导有序几何加权平均(IOWGA)算子的航空货运量组合预测模型,并对组合预测模型进行检验。检验结果表明,组合预测模型是有效、可靠的,且具有较高的预测精度,可应用于实际预测。最后利用所建立的预测模型预测了2009年～2012年我国航空货运量。
Based on the statistical data of China’s air cargo from 1997 to 2007, the gray GM (1,1) model and the regression analysis model were used to optimize the combination of air cargo transportation based on induced ordered geometric weighted average (IOWGA) operator Quantity combination forecasting model, and test the combination forecasting model. The test results show that the combined forecasting model is effective and reliable, and has a high prediction accuracy and can be applied to the actual forecast. Finally, the prediction model established predicts the amount of air cargo in China from 2009 to 2012.