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2016年7月6日晨0时40分左右,新疆喀什地区叶城县柯克亚乡六村发生特大滑坡泥石流灾害,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。本研究采用地面调查、访问和遥感解译方法,从滑坡、泥石流形成的地形地貌、地层岩性和水文气象条件着手,分析了滑坡特征与成因,泥石流形成条件、灾害链过程与致灾机理,并对未来本区滑坡泥石流的发展趋势进行了预测。现场调查表明:(1)位于西昆仑山北坡中高山区的六村与七村毗邻区域,在6日凌晨发生的大暴雨,触发了38处群发性浅层黄土滑坡,属蠕滑-拉裂机制,且部分大滑坡表现为远程滑坡-泥流特征;(2)这些滑坡体堆积在“V”形沟谷中形成堰塞坝,其中六村上游发育15处滑坡和2个滑坡堰塞坝,在持续降水和小型沟谷泥石流的作用下,滑坡坝发生串联式溃决而形成堵溃型泥石流,冲毁六村居民区和道路;(3)同时,该毗邻区域两侧存在超过227处的黄土滑坡变形体,未来在区域气候由暖干转向暖湿条件下,强降雨的极端气候事件会增多,若遭遇强降雨,研究区仍然会爆发滑坡-堰塞坝-溃决泥石流模式的灾害,其规模可能比“7·6”事件还大。建议深化本区浅层黄土滑坡变形机理、临界雨量及泥流运动机理等方面的深入研究,同时加强滑坡泥石流的监测和预测研究。
At about 12:40 on July 6, 2016, an extremely large landslide and debris flow disaster occurred in the six villages of Kekeya Township, Yacheng County, Kashgar Prefecture in Kashgar region, causing heavy casualties and property losses. In this study, ground surveys, interviews and remote sensing interpretation methods were used to analyze the characteristics and causes of landslides, the formation conditions of debris flow, the process of disaster chains and the mechanism of disaster hazards, from the topography, formation lithology and hydro-meteorological conditions formed by landslides and debris flows. And forecast the development trend of landslide debris flow in the future. The field survey shows that: (1) Located in the middle of the west Kunlun Mountains in the mountainous area of six villages and seven villages adjacent to the area, on the 6th morning of the heavy rain, triggered a large group of 38 shallow loess landslides, a creep - Mechanism, and part of the major landslides are characterized by long-range landslide-mudflow features. (2) These landslides accumulate in the “V” shaped valleys to form dam dams, of which 15 landslides and 2 landslides Dam, continuous rainfall and small valley debris flow, the landslide dam series collapse and the formation of the collapse of debris flow, destruction of six village residential areas and roads; (3) at the same time, there are more than 227 on both sides of the adjacent area Loess landslide deformation body, the future in the regional climate from warm and dry to warm and humid conditions, heavy rainfall extreme weather events will increase in case of heavy rainfall, the study area will still be triggered landslide - weir dam - collapse of debris flow disaster pattern, its The scale may be larger than the “7.6” event. It is suggested to deepen the study on the deformation mechanism, critical rainfall and movement mechanism of shallow loess landslides in this area, and to strengthen the monitoring and prediction research of landslide debris flow.